{"id":29787,"date":"2026-09-29T06:05:21","date_gmt":"2026-09-29T06:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carma.com\/?post_type=tms&p=29787"},"modified":"2026-09-29T06:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T06:05:27","slug":"crisis-curve-management-flattening-the-bell","status":"publish","type":"tms","link":"https:\/\/carma.com\/id\/tms\/crisis-curve-management-flattening-the-bell\/","title":{"rendered":"Crisis Curve Management: Flattening the Bell"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In post-incident analysis, most crises exhibit a pattern shaped like a bell. The beginning of a crisis can start fast or slow, with the left side of the bell gently sloped or rising quickly. Mentions rise, reach a peak, and then either slope slowly downwards, or plummet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The objective for PR practitioners in dealing with this bell shape is threefold; one, you want to reduce<\/em> the peak, two, you want to shorten<\/em> the overall duration, and three, you want a fast resolution<\/em> (rather than a longer, gradual slope at the end).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monitoring is a big part of achieving all three of these crisis goals. The way to reduce volume at the peak is by diffusing negatives quickly, and monitoring is how one identifies the issues that are generating the most coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortening the duration of a crisis is achieved by responding quickly to address those issues. And ending a crisis quickly is largely the result of audiences accepting the means by which a company addresses the issues at hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trickiest is the last one, because an audience accepting a resolution is a matter of trust and belief. The tail end of a crisis is a challenging point in time for a brand to ask for trust\u2014which is why it is so important to manage a crisis carefully and honestly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

How can a brand diffuse a crisis quickly?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s state the obvious first: no two crises are the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if some of the fundamentals are similar, the details will not be. A major oil spill will always be an ecological disaster, no matter where it occurs. However, one that happens off of a major tourist beach will require a different crisis response than one that happens in a remote area in the arctic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wildlife and ecology would be affected in both areas. But the one that happens near a tourist beach would also impact local businesses and residents. There would also be a much higher likelihood of social media coverage, just due to the location.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a remote arctic area, a handful of professional photojournalists would be on site quickly. At a beach, there is the potential for hundreds of individuals taking photos and shooting video. In short, where there are people, there are likely to be pictures. And that can increase the speed at which a crisis spreads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Breaking down the potential impacts of a crisis into component parts is an important part of monitoring in a crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is because messaging will almost certainly need to address each of the pain points a crisis exposes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By segmenting the potential impacts and monitoring each, you can then prioritise messaging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, if you monitor and analyse the initial stages of a crisis and learn that two distinct concerns are surfacing with one more prominently discussed than the other, that has provided you with some key information to act upon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flattening the curve using this information means prioritising the aspect that most are concerned about first. Ultimately you will still need to be addressing all crisis angles but tackle big problems quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI analysis can help to surface this type of information from media reports and social content. This type of rapid examination of content is one thing that AI does really well and can assist crisis response teams as they respond to media and public inquiries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Different crises call for different responses<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sometimes self-deprecating humour and tongue-in-cheek responses are the right move. Other times they are decidedly not. Your crisis response team needs to be very cognisant of multiple sensitivities and have a keen understanding of what is appropriate and what is not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When in doubt, err on the side of caution. It is better to have a crisis response be too formal than too flippant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A real-world example of when humour was used well in a crisis was in 2018, when KFC switched delivery suppliers, leaving hundreds of outlets without chicken. More than 900 restaurants across the UK had to close or significantly reduce open hours for nearly a week whilst they straightened out the logistics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortages and closures can break trust, lead to frustrated customers, and cause financial problems for the brand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The brand designed a full-page advert<\/a> that ran in the Sun<\/em> and Metro<\/em> newspapers, picturing an empty chicken bucket with their brand letters rearranged in an unflattering manner. Bold letters right underneath the bucket read \u201cWe\u2019re sorry\u201d, followed by \u201cA chicken restaurant without any chicken. It\u2019s not ideal.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The response was a bit cheeky, but it did the trick. This is cited frequently as a brand response to a crisis that hit the correct notes at the right moment. It was memorable and made headlines for the right reasons following a very challenging period for the brand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, the brand had to carefully consider how the suggestion of an expletive would go over with customers. There are some places where this particular framing of an apology would not have landed as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Contrast this with Pepsi\u2019s advert the year prior, featuring Kendall Jenner at a protest march at which she hands a police officer a Pepsi. In the midst of a period of high racial tension in the US, the implicit suggestion that a soft drink could solve problems and heal wounds was the wrong framing at the wrong time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Backlash was substantial, and the advert was removed from airing within 24 hours, and this is still used as an example of a crisis that did not need to have happened.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

The more serious a crisis is, the better the response needs to be<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The unavailability of chicken and a tone-deaf commercial for soda may have generated crises for each brand, but ultimately no one was physically hurt by either situation. Brand reputation was the only real immediate impact in both cases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clearly, when the health and safety of the public are of concern, brands should focus on providing fast, accurate, and helpful information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2009 a multi-year crisis<\/a> began for auto manufacturer Toyota. Long known and trusted for safety and reliability, this crisis began with reports of sudden acceleration, leading to car crashes and a number of fatalities. The company\u2019s initial response was that the issue was with improperly mounted floor mats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

After several rounds of recalls focusing on floor mats, Toyota added accelerator pedals to recall notices. There were also issues with anti-lock brakes during the same time period, which led to a recall on anti-lock braking software for some Toyota models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, there were a number of problems going on with Toyota vehicles, but the company\u2019s initial response didn\u2019t seem to match the severity of the issues. The notion that a car could suddenly accelerate without warning and be unable to stop is terrifying to anyone who isn\u2019t a stunt driver. Telling people to remove their floor mats and they\u2019ll be fine feels dismissive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a terrible few years for Toyota. One crisis after another kept them in the headlines, and the lawsuits that followed continued the negative coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Addressing problems quickly and taking concerns seriously is critical for successful crisis response. This is particularly true when dealing with issues that impact health and safety.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PR practitioners interested in reducing the size of the crisis bell curve can improve their success rates by implementing a rigorous monitoring programme that flags emerging issues quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By addressing issues of highest concern first, brands may be able to shorten the duration of a crisis, with lower volumes and a briefer overall life cycle of the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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